Reading Microsoft's response in the Financial Times (requires registration) cynically, one can't help but wonder whether the Redmond-based company wishes Sony had kept it's yap shut. "We have made no such announcement," said Microsoft. "Games are what are driving consumers to purchase game consoles and we remain focused on providing the largest library of blockbuster games available." Which they have, if we judge purely on the basis of software units moved.
The questions now, as I see them, are as follows:
- Does Microsoft view Blu-ray as critical technology in terms of high definition (and true 1080p) hardware video playback? I think the answer to this comes down to where Sony's surge in PS3 sales in January came from, and whether that surge continues in the absence of corresponding video game sales.
- Does Microsoft recognize that doing 1080p -- even streaming -- by download as opposed to physical media is a fool's errand for another half decade (or longer)? Downloadable content as complementary = fabulous. But downloadable content as stand-in for physical media is insanity. Unless you want to also bundle in a cheap 10 Terabyte drive. Lost Season Three alone could probably fill up a good sized chunk of a 1 Terabyte spindle (and don't try to convince me I don't need 1080p -- I do, and I'm not going back, thanks for asking).
- Can Microsoft get a standalone player to market in the $250-$300 range? I was at Best Buy yesterday and noticed a standalone Sony Blu-ray drive going for $400. A quick scan of Google Shopping suggests that unless you're going refurbished, that's about as cheap as they currently get. And remember, Microsoft has to pay Sony a license fee to use the technology.
- Is this even the right cycle? Wired speculates that it isn't. I think it is, but that's based mostly on what I continue to view as a jaw dropping, unexpected sales surge in PS3 players in January. Microsoft can market the 360 as a games machine that happens to play standard definition DVDs all it likes, but if people are ready to go high def en masse in 2008 to complement the current flat screen feeding frenzy, the lack of a legitimate high def player is going to cripple the 360. I have friends and relatives who prefer the 360's library, but -- heedless of my advice -- have been springing for PlayStation 3's simply because they want Blu-ray now (that HD DVD is history).
- Internal versus external. Note to Microsoft -- external. If you really want to offer a Super Duper Elite-Ain't-Half-The-Cool-In-This-Thing version, go for it, but disenfranchise your existing base at your peril. If Microsoft releases a standalone player first, it'll sell as well as bricks, unless they sell it at price parity with the cheapest iteration of the PlayStation 3, which you and I know ain't gonna happen.
Put it this way -- if Microsoft releases a standalone player, I'll pick one up the second it's available. Internal player? Not until whatever comes after this generation of game machines.
The questions now, as I see them, are as follows:
- Does Microsoft view Blu-ray as critical technology in terms of high definition (and true 1080p) hardware video playback? I think the answer to this comes down to where Sony's surge in PS3 sales in January came from, and whether that surge continues in the absence of corresponding video game sales.
- Does Microsoft recognize that doing 1080p -- even streaming -- by download as opposed to physical media is a fool's errand for another half decade (or longer)? Downloadable content as complementary = fabulous. But downloadable content as stand-in for physical media is insanity. Unless you want to also bundle in a cheap 10 Terabyte drive. Lost Season Three alone could probably fill up a good sized chunk of a 1 Terabyte spindle (and don't try to convince me I don't need 1080p -- I do, and I'm not going back, thanks for asking).
- Can Microsoft get a standalone player to market in the $250-$300 range? I was at Best Buy yesterday and noticed a standalone Sony Blu-ray drive going for $400. A quick scan of Google Shopping suggests that unless you're going refurbished, that's about as cheap as they currently get. And remember, Microsoft has to pay Sony a license fee to use the technology.
- Is this even the right cycle? Wired speculates that it isn't. I think it is, but that's based mostly on what I continue to view as a jaw dropping, unexpected sales surge in PS3 players in January. Microsoft can market the 360 as a games machine that happens to play standard definition DVDs all it likes, but if people are ready to go high def en masse in 2008 to complement the current flat screen feeding frenzy, the lack of a legitimate high def player is going to cripple the 360. I have friends and relatives who prefer the 360's library, but -- heedless of my advice -- have been springing for PlayStation 3's simply because they want Blu-ray now (that HD DVD is history).
- Internal versus external. Note to Microsoft -- external. If you really want to offer a Super Duper Elite-Ain't-Half-The-Cool-In-This-Thing version, go for it, but disenfranchise your existing base at your peril. If Microsoft releases a standalone player first, it'll sell as well as bricks, unless they sell it at price parity with the cheapest iteration of the PlayStation 3, which you and I know ain't gonna happen.
Put it this way -- if Microsoft releases a standalone player, I'll pick one up the second it's available. Internal player? Not until whatever comes after this generation of game machines.
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